Hi Badger192, I'm still here. BYE’S latest presentation, in my...

Hi Badger192,
I'm still here. BYE’S latest presentation, in my view, has nothing much new from a subsurface perspective, apart from forecast flow rates from G1 of 20MMSCF/D gas and 1000 BOPD. Yes, I like the SM58 development and I really like the remaining 25 high-quality prospects, 100% owned.

As another poster mentioned, and I agree, BYE tend to forecast flow rates prematurely and remember that we did not get a wireline log over the mud log oil shows at SM58 to confirm the presence of oil. We only have wireline logs over the gas column. G1 has been cased over the gas column and BYE anticipate some associated oil (1,000 BOPD) to flow with the gas production. A risk in my view, is, if we do not get production wells dedicated to producing the oil leg in a reasonable amount of time after the G1 completion, there is a chance that as the gas accumulation is produced, down dip oil may migrate into the depleted gas column with some of the oil being permanently trapped in the depleted gas sands by a process known imbibition – once the oil is absorbed into the gas column reservoir, you do not get it all back – a bit like water in a sponge.

BYE have forecast G2-4 will be drilled in the second half of 2021, so I trust that their reservoir simulation models have tested how much oil could possibly be lost to the gas column as it depletes. Yes, we can expect strong water drive at SM58 and yes as oil migrates into the gas column, we will produce some of that oil. But some of that oil may be lost of we do not develop the oil column in a reasonable amount of time after G1 is put on production. Only my view of course.

As an aside, BYE anticipated strong water drive from the D5 sand to facilitate oil production at F4 in SM71, but this has not eventuated with F4 producing primarily gas with declining reservoir pressure. There are always these challenges that mother nature throws at us.

I want an oil well dedicated to the SM58 oil column sooner rather than later. We need good reservoir management practises to be deployed on SM58 given the combination of a gas and oil accumulation.

Kind regards OldGeo