NST 1.86% $13.71 northern star resources ltd

"The World has gone crazy over a virus that is no worse than the...

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    "The World has gone crazy over a virus that is no worse than the Flu."


    I agree with your other points about the positives for the POG, but what you say about the severity of the "virus" is simply not true.

    Seasonal flu varies from year to year, but on average it infects roughly 10% of the population and kills about 0.1% of those it infects.
    Thus on average, it kills about 0.01% of the population each year.

    The jury is still out on the Infection Fatality Rsk (IFR) for Covid.
    Early estimates from China and France indicated an IFR of 0.7%.
    However, a recent reassessment published in the Lancet puts the IFR in NYC between March and June at 1.39%.
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30769-6/fulltext

    Furthermore, because Covid is novel, and highly infectious, it will go on to infect 60 to 80% of the population in the absence of control measures.
    Thus, in the absence of a vaccine, Covid can be expected to continue on to kill about 1.0% of the population, over a period of a year or two.
    This is a lot more than the typical 0.01% of the population killed by seasonal flu.
    Worse still, because Covid is attacking a naive population, if control measures are not implemented to slow its spread, it rapidly overwhelms the hospital system, which would further increase the IFR.
    The European countries are again facing this grim prospect and it is not even winter there yet.

    It is a sobering statistic that, since the start of the Victorian outbreak in mid-June, the Australian confirmed case fatality rate is a neat 4.0%.
    And this is in a country with a minimal case burden, an enviable health care system and with the benefit of all that has been learned about how to treat Covid through the first half of the year.

    Cheers



 
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