As has already been said, inflation was at 3.8% when the DFS came out., 7.8% today 2 years later. DFS's are not 100% accurate either, they are an estimation, like any study.
The lack of experienced blasting personnel has prevented the desired recovery of ore. McMahons are responsible for supplying those services I think, so they have let the company down..
Excess overburden is causing the company to spend too much time dealing with waste material.
Dave has perhaps foolishly hoped all the issues that have beset the project would soon come good, and fed us optimistic numbers, but that came undone, the problems persisted, and now his credibility is in question.
In response to that, I believe he has set the guidance low so it is easy to beat. Dave knows that if he comes up with any more misses, he (and his investment) is toast for a while, and then CAI could plummet to dog stock status (like OBA ). In other words, he has set lame guidance to underpromise so he can overdeliver.
IT seems that those who sold out think 70Koz @ 2200 AISC is now the new norm? No, I think they got that wrong. It might be the norm for the next six months though with no profits. Maybe longer if inflation keeps rising. But clearly the target was set for 90Koz p.a. because the geology and modelling supports it. We are dealing with low grade ore in the early stages too. We have a big tenement with almost 100 targets, some very high grade.
A few years ago Aussie goldies AISCs were in the 1200 - 1400 range. Then they started creeping into the 1500s...and here we are at $2000+ today. Yep, shocking as you say, but its not just Calidus.
RMS have shut down one of their pits, and I think they are having grade problems with their other one. RSG have had a bad few years, and seem to be turning around now, but even in West Africa, their last AISC was $2100! Regis, Santa Barbara , Westgold and others have all had various issues over the years which has seem their SPs slaughtered, However , investors keep buying them up at their lows. I dont really see why CAI wont eventually join their ranks as a successful Tier 3 miner.
Just to illustrate we are in tough times, here is a recent HRZ release. Ive seen this so many times now, plans or studies put on hold because the mining environment is too volatile and directors are unwilling to predict costs..
Aslo dont discount the effects of profiteering in W.A. In 2010 I lived in Toowoomba for a while. Pop 100K, 130kms away from Brisbane. So not exactly out in the sticks. Yet locals were arrogantly charging an arm and a leg for their trades and professional services. I often ended up getting jobs done by Ipswich or Brisbane professionals. I had a surveyor drive out from Brisbane, and even after his extra time and travel charges, his fees came in at less than half of what a local wanted. Pfft.
In a much more remote area like W.A you cant tell me the same is not going on right now. Theres little ethics in construction or earthmoving businesses at the best of times, people will screw you at every opportunity especially if they have a monopoly. They dont want fair pay, they want top dollar to get out of bed like those super models, and retire at 40.
For most goldies on Aussie soil, it aint goona be plain sailing. Steady on the rudder, and an eagle eye on the horizon to spot any trouble. But what if Pog goes to USD$2500? Its about the only commodity of late that hasnt gone for a silly run.
@Jonnyash We dont know CMM dont have workforce issues do we? They are making good money so no one cares or would mention it if they did. Thats why I said, once the airport is done, when a worker has finished a 10 day shift a 15 min drive to airport + a 2 hour flight to get home to loved ones back in Perth will make employment much more attractive?
CAI Price at posting:
27.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
). In other words, he has set lame guidance to underpromise so he can overdeliver.
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