I will try and explain my thinking a bit - mainly for the CR thread.
this is what you want ------
So - there are two main sides to the story of selling a business on the public boards - SP and the business itself.
You know the business is going to cut the mustard - at a particular time.
You know roughly what price you want (perhaps you don't - but, no matter there - if it is bigger - fine)
Now - the SP -
generally - you get about a 30% premium for a takeover -
so - for a 13 dollar sale - you need an sp of around 10 bucks at the time of the bid
to get a high SP - you need institutional investors.
Remember this bit - and, never forget it.
Now - to get institutions ------- they need to see that they can make one kickbutt profit -----
which means - they need to buy far cheaper than they can sell.
Now - at this point - go back and remember ----------- you NEED them to drive your SP madly ----------- you need this so that when a bid comes - the SP and the premium will get to your target.
So - to get the requisite number of Instos on board - you need to have a way of getting them stock.
You can get them stock by 2 methods - they can buy on market - or you can make placements.
The perfect time to have them on board is earlier in the piece - so, for them to get on board isn't a large investment for them - also - the sooner they are on board - in numbers - the sooner they will begin to compete.
they are the same as us - remember - it's position that counts - and, it's far easier to get 10 million shares at 50 cents than it is to get 10 million shares at 4 bucks.
Once you have enough of them on board and they have whatever amount of stock you feel is right ----------------- 'without' having to bow and scrape to them and certainly not allowing them to have control -
you allow them to drive the story north -matching or exceeding the story of the business.
It's like preparing for race day -- race day is sale day ---------- you don't want to peak too early - but, you need to be match ready - the timing HAS to be right.
Also - the business has to match roughly the MC - if the business value overpowers the MC - then, you will get early bids --------------- NOT a good thing - why?
Because an early bid WILL gain stock ---------- not all - because you have enough to block a takeover ----------------- IF you want to - but, an early bid is made from a bridegroom having a slash at a cheap buy -
what you don't want is a pissed off large holder - one who has been rejected.
The ideal - is to get your instos to drive the price to a figure that most of us find hard to believe - at the same time that several bridegrooms (desirable one's) - get so hot about the whole idea because of the business value at the same time -
so much so that they form an auction - ie. several competing bids - as you lay back on the couch to receive them one by one.
So - at this stage of the play ------------ it is irrelevant about CR's - totally irrelevant -
they are NOT bad news - they are a necessary part of the play - and, should be welcomed.
As to someone commenting on that the company will tap US for money ----
NO way Jose ---------- they don't want OUR money - they want Insto money - in fact - they don't probably even need the money - that is the point - what they want is stock in multiple insto hands.
Bit of a rave - but, I hope it helps.
Pinto
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