Acutally this talk just materialized out of thin air today. Hot of the press just now:
"EU COMMISSION: GOVERNMENTS SHOULD URGENTLY LANUCH INCENTIVES FOR INDUSTRIES TO CURB GAS USE, INCLUDING FINANCIAL COMPENSATION. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD DECIDE THE ORDER IN WHICH THEY WILL FORCE NON-ESSENTIAL INDUSTRIES TO CLOSE IN A GAS SUPPLY EMERGENCY."
I am not knowledgable enough on manganese smelters, but have been involved with zinc smelters, and the cost of shutting down and restarting are substantial. Also in Europe it may not offer much relieve, as fixed costs are high, and you cannot just lay off people at random (nor expect them coming back, OMH knows better than anybody the importance of a skilled labor force, and there OMH needs to improve a lot too - if only to keep the Malay authorities on their side).
Anyways, when it comes to European smelters (ex Scandinavia) once the EU commission/ECB pays for it out of their huge slush funds that nobody is accountable for, it will hasten shut in of energy gobbling smelters. However there is also a strategic incentive to safeguard them from being rendered permanently inoperable. Currently there is more at play than only economics here, Europe is in a strange pull between short term and long term thinking. It is hard to see how smelters or converters really have a future in mainland Europe given their cost structure vis a vis other jurisdictions, on the other hand there are strategic considerations why you wouldn't want to destroy capacity mostly forever.
Looking at OMH's sustaining capex that they spend it is not too cheap for manganese smelters either, it seems. For the share price to recover they really need to up their own game, and convert more cashflow to cashflow to the owners, and imho they also need to be able to consumerate buying out their j/v without a capital raise. It think everyone agrees they should beneficiaires of their low energy costs structure, however they will need to show it on their bottom line and cash balance sheet too. To be determined
Imho they are in the 'show me' period, and that is what is depressing the share price.
(20min delay)