I am doubting where he gets the extra 771,887 extra shares from. Last Friday, 19th January, Kins decided to send everyone the letter (but no one knows anything until Monday), but on the market, I had recorded a few incidents
a) Thursday, 18th January, there is approximately 30-50k shares volume ditch down to 84 cents at 3:58 pm on purpose. Following that, after closing auction, User123 confirmed around 36k shares sold at 84 cents, which most didn't sell to RG.
b) Friday, 19th January, around 3:30pm to 4:00 pm, there was around 231 k shares sold down to 84 cents. After market, there was another 33, 498 shares sold at 84 cents.
* Keep in mind that, Friday, where I don't expect any one has gotten the letter from Kin's Group yet, right? Only until Monday, that I heard everyone talking about receiving the letter. I personally received the letter from my mum, whom got it around 2-3 pm on Monday,22nd January. She has confirmed it with me.
c) On Monday morning, 22nd January, right about 10:06 am just before the market started, there were around 20k shares traded at before the bell starts, and again around 3:00 pm, there were a massive dump of around 80-100 k shares during midday at 84 cents before someone took a fight back to 84.5 cents and shoot up. Then, at the closing bell, things are sold crazy at which is at 80 cents or so before closing bell and I guess it was settled at 84 cents with volumes of trading around 20-30k.
d) Today,23rd January, there is an approximately of 24,282 before the bell rang at 10:07 sold at 84 cents. But today is not inclusively in his announcement.
So, from my estimate, Thursday 30 k+ Friday 231 k+ 33.5 k + Monday 20 k+ 100 k +20k, there were at least 434.5 k volumes of shares trading at suspicion activities or you could say almost trading illegally to manipulate the price. Why? All those shares were trading at ad-hoc hours (before the bell, around 3:30 pm and after closing auction). As User132 said, those hours are generally not advised to be handles by retail holders, only from veteran or senior rank in investment world to deal with it.
I suspect these trading activities are price manipulation from RG's side, as I suspect he got a fund working with him to manipulate share price, and that fund only has around 2.5 million shares top. As I reiterated, there are only 3 registries that are over 4-5 millions shares holding. The rest of other funds, even though they have shares but to swing it to 90% CA, it's not possible by one fund alone.
So, I suspect a fund has been manipulated the price on the market for the purpose of RG's takeover bid.
So, I implore you guys1) Please, hold on to your shares, as you can see from my estimate, and theory, the actual amount of people giving in is a lot less. I would guess, only the real shares from holders gave in to him is
around 337.4 k shares. But, kept in mind that, since there was a mess up from
last update, they probably tried to reverse some customers that still swinging their minds. So, the actual holders right now giving in to RG could be substantially lesser than everyone knows. Beside, they made the mistake in counting last time,
what guarantee they don't mess up the counting again?2)
You don't lose more than 84 cents/share. I repeated their closing date is
12th February, but ASX law forced them to keep the bid (on market) and (off market)
till the 26th February. It means, even if he reaches 90% (unlikely), you can still dump it out on 25th February and cash in your pocket right away without filling those $hits forms anyways. But, should the price look promising any time before that 25th February, you can make the decision. Don't rush it please, have your own mind and your own control. I am just telling the time line here.
3) Pact will update half yearly result way before 25th February so you can make an assessment.
4) If RG can't reach 90% to privatise the company, the 160 millions dollars Pact got from the sale of 50% of crate pool division will pay down the debt which will improve the company's financial balance. If RG's gets to 90%, I don't think there will be a $160 mil to pay to the debt but straight into his pocket, which arguably, that's the money he upfront at the bid to buy back all the shares.
5) By having RG not getting to 90%, one side, he tipped over $100 mil to buy shares, the other end, the company use the $160 mil to pay the debt, I can only smell good food from here onward. If price dropped, RG loses more money which he's not stupid to let it be. Also if priced dropped under 84 cents, it is highly suspect that RG has been manipulated a fund to push the price now, and if he can't get to 90%, he will have to postpone it at least 6 months-1 year.
Do you think he will keep shorting the market price down for him that long? Impossible, even if he wants to, the market will move forward with or without him, anyways.
It's just whether you can hold on for a better price or dump it out on the 25th February (if he reaches 90%) and you can still get the money straight awayon the 25th Feb to your broker account(any change in the date, we will keep you updated).
Pleas hold on to your shares guys, I am digging hard, hoping for a solution.
