Thanks for that Ben, but I owed it to the newspaper, particularly AFR and the Australian, I was just simply copy and paste their works up here.
Having said that, I dug up a bit more information from Friday checking. Called me paranoid if you wanted but it doesn't look like RG is going to pay us a proper premium; more like he racked up the biggest IPO in Australia and then to rob it all back for himself. This has been planned and we happened to be the victims in this take over bid.
Anyways, this is what I see from the registry:
1) Out of the 49 top holders ranking from 92 k to RG's holdings (4 accounts by himself, Salvage, Kin, Bennamon 1 and Bennamon 2),
15 accounts had exited from end of January to as far as 15th February. Out of those 15 accounts, only 2 individual accounts and the remainder belongs to companies or small funds. So excluding RG's accounts, there are approximately 30 accounts still got shares in Pact ranking from 92 k shares upward.
2) The biggest issue arises from major institutional funds, namely HSBC, JP Morgan, Citi and UBS (through Warbont Nominees). They owned millions of shares so whether they tried to exit or working for RG, it fluctuated the sp and scare the crap out of minority holders (that's what I believe)
a) JP Morgan on 9 January had 2 842 534, by 25 January had 2 401 969, by 2nd February had 2 075 617 and by 15 February had 573 294 shares. Well, doesn't look good, but it seemed they are exiting and at least they are selling it on the market (I supposed).
b)HSBC on the 9 January had 2 516 889, by 25 January they had 2 094 701 shares with an additional nominee account with 1 000 000 shares in it, and by 2 February they only had 2 052 340 with their additional nominee account depleted and by 15 February they only had 432 571 shares.
One might ask the question, is HSBC tried to pump and dump? or simply just transferred off market to RG that 1 million shares in their additional nominee account and then tried to manipulate the market share price and finally dumped it to RG for an under table deal? Who knows? For me, I tend to think the second one.
c) Citi on the 9th January had 2 321 534, by 25 January they had 3 346 051 shares and by 2 February they had 3 758 018 and by 15 February, they only had 2 553 468 shares. But, what I dug up more with Citi is that they had created another 17 nominee accounts, but those accounts altogether only have 73 119 shares in it. So what happened to that 1.2 million shares difference? Where did it go?
So is Citi just trading around or working for RG for an under table deal? Now, HSBC has substantially reduced their holdings, I think, if RG can use Citi, that will be his next card on the 1st of March to scare minority holders. I only hope Citi doesn't work for RG.
d) Warbont Nominees (act on behalf of UBS, I supposed) on the 9th February had 724 860 shares. By 2 February, they only had 30 142 shares and exited. They came back on the 6 February with 670 520 shares on holding. By today, I read on the news that they are the banker for the upcoming Loscam auction which is now expected to be worth over 2 billions plus (and RG really like that auction). So, is UBS or Warbont trying to sell out for tax loss and repurchase it or are they trying to lobby RG' s for the Loscam auction? Who knows?
All those points were just observation, but regardless of whether these institutions tried to exit or working for RG's or consolidating or sitting on standby, their shares movement was what causing the price fluctuation from the 2nd February to last Friday, 15 February and dragged nervous minority shareholders with them. That's what I thought.
3) As best as I can guess, as I stated there are still around 30 accounts that got more than 92 k shares upward, this is my estimate from them
Manipur 19 262 875 shares User123 4 250 000 shares Individual account 2 250 000 shares Some accounts that doesn't seem to relate to RG's or institutional 2 394 109 shares
Total: 28 156 984
HSBC 432 571 shares JP Morgan 573 294 shares Warbont (UBS) 670 520 shares Citi 2 553 468 shares
Total: 4 229 853 shares
The rest of remainder shares belong to a lot of individual accounts owned less than 92 k of shares.
As you can see,
a) If I ignored RG's and institutional side, and hope that the top remainders stayed the same or one buy in to cover the other, 34 429 005- 28 156 984 = 6 272 021 shares. We still need another 6 272 021 shares to securely 10% blocking power.
b) if insto doesn't work for RG, then we only need 2 042 168 shares.
c) As calculation goes on, there are around 12 886 219 shares belong to holders under 92 k shares. So, like I said, all those price swings are mostly from those institutional movement and top holders decisions. As much as we can't amass 10% properly yet, keep in mind because almost these13 million shares belong to us, as like, almost over a thousand accounts here man. So, is RG's trying to rob us or are we robbing ourselves? If there is only 2 millions shares put on market for sale, can you guys see how many of us hold back our shares, hehehe.
(20min delay)