Ann: Appendix 3Y, page-26

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moorookamick

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23/01/19

19:47

Post #: 37204024
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Originally posted by moorookamick: ↑

Thank you burner for your post. I guess the delay financing is the reason why we have a new CEO who, by his CV, seems to be eminently credentialed for the task.
In the interim, however, I'd like to make a few comments:
(a) That Beringovsky Port has a reported seasonal capacity of 700K ton ( this season's forecast is 415K to 430K ton in sales)
(b) That current mining is gradually reaching better quality coking coal (see Sept Qtr Quarterly)
(c) That FOB price is improving due to improved coal quality)
(d) 100K ton stockpile @ 31st Dec ?

There should be no reasonable excuse not to ship 700K ton this year because TIG has just added to its mining and trucking plant/fleet.

If we can mine, sell & ship 700K ton this season without further capex, then we could be looking at a seriously positive cashflow come
Dec Qtr 2019, IMO.

Let's say that we have 100K ton stockpile at the end of last shipping season and that we mine /truck 70K ton a month* of better quality coking coal to
port to the end of September. This would give us 700K ton available to sell/ship by the Oct 2019 with a 3 week break in April/May for breakup.
(I have been advised because of TIG's type of coal & local climate, that stockpile deterioration is not an issue)

If we assume that the coal quality mined in AUG/Sept is going to be indicative of coal mined for this year then we can expect a premium over
the 2017 season FOB rate which from memory was about $97 AUD/ton (We'll have an update in a week on what 2018's average FOB price. was)

IMO, without going into detail , this should produce a positive cashflow of about $40 million AUD; enough to get a bridging loan for the balance
to take us to 1 mil ton+/P/A in 2020. I suspect, however, that financing negotiations are already well under way. What else has the Moscow crew to do over the winter when there is only digging & trucking happening at the mine site!

*2300 ton/day/1150 ton/shift (2 shifts/day) or 46 truck loads/shift (We have 15 trucks) and even with 12 operational, this should be a piece of piss
with a load lead of only 35ks !

Expand

"The Beringovsky Port has historically handled over 700,000 tonnes of coal per year from the Nagornaya mine and the port will be progressively refurbished and expanded over time to at least 1Mtpa capacity." (source: TIG ASX announcement 10th June 2014)

We have done some work on it in the interim.

TIG Price at posting: 3.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Appendix 3Y, page-26

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Ann: Appendix 3Y, page-26

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