FLN 0.00% 18.5¢ freelancer limited

I'm pretty relaxed with FLN.I think the enterprise model FLN are...

  1. 830 Posts.
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    I'm pretty relaxed with FLN.
    I think the enterprise model FLN are developing could be huge, but is yet a bit unproven.
    The existing freelancer marketplace is proven, and growing with macro developments like COVID, showing good growth. It is hard to see how this isn't a ratchet - what business would re-hire permanent staff with all the on-costs etc. if they can get the work done with no strings attached by freelancers?
    The large userbase is hard to match for a newcomer, and is potentially attractive to big gorillas seeking to enter the market (like microsoft/linkedin, or ebay or facebook or amazon). I think the share price could have been managed differently in the past 6 months to take advantage of the exuberance around Fiverr and Upwork. While it is fine for Matt to retain his integrity by not chasing revenue sugar hits from adword marketing etc, I think doing so during this period would have been forgiven, and could easily have seen the stock price double - given optionality to more corporate moves/investments etc.
    I don't think it is so much a mistake, but the 99-2000 dotcom boom showed how to use inflated stock as cash to gain sustainable advantage and I was a bit surprised FLN's management weren't a bit more nimble here, when an opportunity presented to tag along the soaring valuations of peers that could have provided currency to look at businesses with valuations hit by COVID.
    Assuming FLN resisted chasing short term growth (and stock appreciation!) to build a sustainable long term business, I guess that means this growing cashflow positive business will be seeking to pay a dividend in the next year or two. If the pursuit is not fast growth, then it needs to be income returns to shareholders. It isn't viable in the longer term to sit with modest growth and no shareholder returns, and I think this is why the stock price is languishing and directionless, because the market isn't clear on what the plan is to reward stockholders.
    Note I don't think any of these things are at all to do with the underlying business, just considerations for shareholders and management.

    Escrow is a good business. It is a much better fit for some markets than credit cards or paypal, that are tilted toward consumers, that accept a degree of fraud in exchange for simple and easy b2c payments. Escrow works everywhere that model doesn't, most clearly where sellers need protection from buyer fraud, but also where the nature of the product requires some transaction protection (like IP related gods such as domain names) and these goods are growing. Escrow has a substantial regulatory moat, and would also be an attractive acquisition for marketplaces seeking better payment control (if they had sold off paypal, for example).

    Assuming the market as a whole remains on a reasonably even keel, I think we'll see FLN gradually appreciate into the next earnings release. I can accept some selling at this moment as traders who were hoping for a 20% bump from the recent very good results unwind, but I think people will continue to look at FLN and conclude it is trading low on past sentiment, and it is time for a rerate.
    I think 70c by xmas is not a challenge in that scenario.
 
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