A little bit disappointing with the fall in SaaS revenue, and definitely missed on my original forecast (Below) that was posted after the last quarterly. My cals were based on a 7% quarter on quarter growth, minus all 6.9% of travel based payments being lost... However due to Covid the increase in SaaS revenue due to recent NIAA and flood fund didn't make there way through to the revenue statement it would seem. Disappointingly the $545k SaaS revenue was down 17% of the previous quarter - which is a damned site higher than the 6.9% which was through around in the April quarterly... But I suppose this is taking a stab in the dark really and no one can forecast what will occur in the covid operating environment....
Anyway implementation revenue was significantly higher than my prediction (probably long payment terms) and positive CF achieved. One thing I do appreciate from this company is the clear communication in each 4C, and I have confidence in management based on their clarity. And I tell you what this is a company with a profitable base trying to secure a chunk of the massive pre-paid card sector...
I do not see any downside when the companies MC is only $15M, and personally will try to accumulate if there is any significant weakness in the SP....
Forecast Q4 2020 Cash Flow:
Recurring Rev (Pre-Covid) ~ $733M (this assumes an 7% increase in Q2 19 SaaS revenue post NIAA + flood fund impl.)
Recurring Rev (Post-Covid) ~ $681M (assuming all 6.9% of travel based payments are lost [conservative]) (actual $545k)
Implementation Rev (Post-Covid) ~ $80M (down from $358k in Q3 2020) (actual $375k)
Staff & Admin Costs ~ ($1150) this assumes costs same as Q3, however will be some reduction to staff hours you would think, does not take into account whether 8CO can apply and be successful in the jobkeeper payments etc etc. (actual $1,261k)Cash Flow Q4 = ($389M) (actual $46k)
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