I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried; I have been trying to...

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried; I have been trying to keep a balanced view, but as I mentioned I don't see how the company can keep going the way they are without needing to tap into Chair's loan. This was an "if" before this quarter, but now it's certainly looking just a matter of time (pretty confident won't be Q4, but sometime in FY25).

The combination of ongoing costs associated with protected status + contractors have raised their cost base significantly. This is highlighted under "admin & corp costs" which is steadily for the last 3-4 quarters at 2.1-2.2m (this was at 1.3-1.4m before that). To offset this, the Company needs another 700-800k revenue each quarter from somewhere. Some quarters have been able to break even and be in surplus due to high implementation, and SaaS seasonality (Q4), but as you can see, on the whole, there just isn't enough revenue at the moment to offset this. I estimate we need at least to get to 1.6-1.7m p.q. SaaS revenue to breakeven which is equivalent to about 75-80k live Fed gov users at $50 ARPU (add in the corp and cardhero SaaS too).

Given we have about 45.5k fed users now, we then still need another 35k. So to me the Company is betting that the 17k onboarding fed users converts in FY25, the deficit becomes less (assuming corp + admin costs remain the same), buying more time to then onboard another 15-20k or so users in the near future that have done the Phase 0. They will definitely need to use the Chair's loan at some point.