Nice set of numbers, and really liked the gross margin growing to 57% with more room to improve as the new product takes over completely.
My persistent gripe is that the number of US ECPs remains stuck in a band and hasn't improved since 2021 - the RCT results need to make a big impact on this number.
The news on Mention expanding into further countries is match by Menicon's own emphasis on Myopia in its recently released annual report - the lead growth strategy is focused on myopia, and Menicon Bloom gets a good mention:
A bit of speculation then to pass the time on a lazy Saturday arvo.
- Menicon has about Aus $500M in cash on the balance sheet
- Menicon has invested heavily in the Bloom product suite, with training, apps, advertising etc, and replacing Naturalvue would presumably be a huge pain, let alone not having a leading product in Bloom day.
- Menicon now as a strategic emphasis on Myopia (as does CooperVision)
- Misight revenue increased from Aus $30M in 2021 to what should be about $100M in 2023
Put all that together, and you would think Menicon would see VTI as an attractive acquisition to protect its investment and gain significant growth.
Now,
- Revenue for VTI in CY2023 should be about Aus $15M
- 12x revenue is Aus $180M, a multiple probably at the higher end for a sale, but the RCT result certainly helps (think the promise of the scale of the Misight revenue above)
- Thorney will have an average price of between 60c and 65c after the rights offer
If Menicon acquired for VTI at a SP of $3 ($180M), they could easily recover that in revenue in 3-4 years if they are as good as Coopervision in generating sales, and it's only 1/3 of their cash.
Presumably Thorney would be happy with x5, and not waiting out the next 2 years for the RCT to finish and US FDA/China approvals might sound attractive.
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- Ann: Appendix 4C and Business Activity Report - Sep-2023 Qtr
Ann: Appendix 4C and Business Activity Report - Sep-2023 Qtr, page-9
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