Time for bit of speculation on the upcoming quarterly.In the Q3...

Time for bit of speculation on the upcoming quarterly.

In the Q3 report, the company predicted slightly lower cash receipts and slightly higher cash use in Q4. Seasonality was one reason for the slightly worse result, but I don't by that - certainly I can't see a consistent trend in the data, and Misight certainly doesn't follow such a pattern.

I think there is a reasonable possibility that the company guidance might have been too pessimistic for a few of reasons.

In the US:

• myopia management is rapidly increasing as a speciality in US ECPs - up to 70% now practice it according to the last survey from the US industry body
• Off-label treatments (Naturalvue) are a close second to Misight for preference as a treatment by US ECPs from the same survey
• Misight just had a cracking quarter - revenue up from $10.5M in Q3 to $15.4M in Q4 (most revenue will be from the US)

In the UK:

• Positive Impact have indicated there are now "1000s of users" of Naturalvue
• Naturalvue was the basis of both the successful award to Menicon and the close second to Positive Impact in the UK industry awards.
• Naturalvue has been discounted heavily in the UK all quarter by Positive Impact - essentially a buy one get one free special that ends in a couple of days (see below). Should result in more revenue this quarter, but a much lower gross margin

A couple of (admittedly optimistic) predictions then for the Q4 result:

• Record cash receipts of at least $2.65M
• Back above 2300 active US ECPs
• Cash use of $600K (or only $100K if we get the $500K refund)

It's about time that some of the indirect positive indicators are turned into financial results, and the above set would be a good start.

Of the three, I'd be most concerned by a low result (<2250) in the number of active US ECPS.