In your scenario, if SMN reaches a certain level of earnings, you can calculate the P/E ratio at that time to determine the potential share price, as you said ("It will be a number of years before SMN fulfils its potential"). So why put an arbitrary number on something that is years away? I hope you get my point.
The share price would depend on the P/E ratio and the company's earnings.
However, it's essential to remember that market conditions, industry trends, patent expiry=competion, dodgy directors, undisclosed debt, time and other factors can impact a company's earnings and share price, so it's always a good idea to consider multiple sources of information and data before making investment decisions. So, by weighing all of the above, an investor can evaluate if the risk is worthwhile and not just pull a 'what if' number out of the sky. Everyone has a price to buy and a price to sell. I can assure you my sell price is much less than yours.
SMN Price at posting:
41.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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