Yes you are correct, it has been discussed at length in previous threads months ago... the Wave I eye wands are no longer for sale in any capacity and the SK-II booster comes and goes and is generally bundled in big SK-II packs during promotional / seasonal advertising.
People have been continuously overlooking this fact when it comes to anticipating future 4C revenues, which was fine / understandable when we didn't know what we now know about the Wave I eye wand / SK-II booster, but we've known about this for all of 2018 basically.
People just assume that the January or April 4C (for example) was 400k that quarter, now we have a full quarter of Magnemasks for sale so we can expect 700k-1 mil exponential growth in the July 4C but are overlooking that the revenue for the January/April 4C's was for whatever was on sale in late 2017/early 2018, which at the time might have been a mix of eye wand / SK-II promotional sales / licensing fees and initial online sales for Magnemasks.
We've known more than 6 months now that all of those revenue streams no longer exist except Olay Magnemasks online & retail sales which were ramping up (particularly in USA) and the only other revenue stream could have been included an unexpected upfront / standstill payment for technology 2 or an R&D rebate whenever that is received on an annual basis.
It's fine to be disappointed and say I expected revenue this quarter to hit 700k+ if you expected 600k in royalties from Magnemasks alone, but if you are basing your 700k+ revenue expectations on "exponential growth" from previous quarters and now with Olay Magnemasks sales added to the mix, then your expectations were not correct/realistic to begin with.
Moving forward we need to quickly determine for all new products whether these are online-only or going to be a physical offering in stores as this will likely determine if they are seasonal/promotional (revenue comes & goes sporadically) or consistently-offered products in store (consistent & more predictable revenue).
This is why the 3rd Magnemask product (the whitening one) excited me much more than the gold powered booster, as chances are the new whitening mask will be distributed via retail channels (and also be a big hit in Asian countries) like the first 2 Magnemask products, whereas there's no evidence yet that the gold booster will be a mainstay (it very well might be and if it is, then it was only made possible by the introduction & consumer acceptance/testing from the red SK-II booster).
Another point from yesterday's shareholder update which might have been overlooked is the statement on page 1 where it says "OBJ executed two new work plans with P&G. These new products are scheduled for release in 2019 through P&G's online & retail distribution channels in China and North America"
"This increases the number of new products being developed by OBJ for P&G's skincare business to four, with a fifth expected to be added in coming months."
"One of the new products will be the first to use OBJ's second technology."
b2r analysis/speculation from shareholder update:
1) One new product to be released via online & retail sales in 2019. <-- think another product consistently available on the shelves to add consistent revenue stream
2) First technology 2 product to be released via online & retail sales in 2019 <-- perhaps an overlooked point, but confirms the first technology 2 physical product sales is planned for release via both online & retail sales in 2019 (think again a consistently available, on-the-shelf-exponential-growth-product).
AKA a concrete update on where technology 2 is up to, which is widely considered to have a more favorable royalty rate % and in general a much larger deal/revenue prospects for OBJ compared to all the 1st generation products. This is basically the first thing we've heard about technology 2 officially since March, 2018, I believe.
3) A fifth work plan expected to be added in the coming months. Not much more to be added here except if it's also distributed via online & retail networks, then we have another consistent revenue generator in a similar way as Magnemasks.
It also appears now that a work plan = a new product.
This wasn't always the case, in the past there could have been 10 work plans which eventuated to 4 products for example and it wasn't 1 for 1, but now it looks like it is.
I get this from the lines "This increases the number of new products being developed by OBJ for P&G's skincare business to four, with a fifth expected to be added in coming months" and "OBJ executed two new Work Plans with P&G, setting out the development requirements for two new products based on OBJ's technologies."
Obviously this 3rd and 4th "new" product is just a copy & paste job from the announcement from 22nd of June 2018 and obviously this fifth new work plan already well & truly in advanced discussions.
4) If these two new work plans / products brings the total to four currently under development, then obviously we have another two products already under development and presumably more advanced then the two newly announced work plans/products
If we cast our minds back to November last year during the AGM, on page 13 we were told that:
"the first two advanced packaging skincare products are already committed to market launch with P&G"
It's been 9 months or so since that was shared with us, I suspect this will eventuate soonish and given that these are advanced packaging products, it's a no-brainer that these will distributed via retail networks also.
All of this is supported on page 2 of the September 2017 Shareholder update where it explicitly says:
"P&G has provided OBJ greater visibility on their planning for expansion of markets and products they intend distributing through 2018 to 2021. It is expected that sales of products into P&G brands will continue to increase with multiple new products being launched in Asia and North America containing OBJ's technology."
AKA sold both online and via retail stores/chains aka sustainable/repeatable revenue for OBJ.
What can we expect/anticipate by end of 2019, purely on the P&G skincare front only?
1) 5 products selling in store & online (Magnemasks,+ the 4 work plans under development/expected to be distributed in 2019)
2) Most likely a third Magnemasks whitening cream / whitening masks added to the Magnemasks product suite, increasing Magnemasks revenue - particularly in Asia.
3) Chance of a 6th product joining the mix (the new 5th work plan expected to be agreed in the coming months)
4) Sporadic revenue supplementation with SK-II / gold booster promotional/seasonal sales (huuuge bonus if either of these become a mainstream, in-store product)
Give me two consecutive quarters of these 2-6 products on sale both online & in store and then tell me there's no exponential growth... this is meaning of "revenues will start as a trickle and become a flood".
Alas, we'll have to be patient until at least a 3rd skincare product is consistently available for sale over two consecutive quarters. Then and only then will we see sustainable & impressive quarter on quarter exponential growth.
tl;dr, get really excited about any new products that will be "distributed into Asia and North American markets" and this is our greatest hint that these products will be available both online & in retail stores/chains and will lead to sustainable/repeated sales and therefore "true" exponential revenue growth.
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