You have a good point :) I had done some rough...

You have a good point
I had done some rough back-of-the-envelope calculations a few months ago when the forecast by @brydos was done and did question whether this was reasonable.

Apologies for all the text following. It is long and boring, but it is my thoughts and my opinion, plus some facts thrown in.

I deal with numbers every day and and am a big believer in facts and figures. Numbers that are factual can never lie. Give me a detailed set of financial statements and some Excel spreadsheets and I will be a happy person. But, I also have common sense and sometimes it is much easier (and quicker) to use common sense to come up with ballpark estimates. Forecasts are tough when you only have minimal reliable data. Also, you know what they say about lies and statistics.

To me 500,000 of many of things (that is not a cheap necessary consumable) in 3 months sounds high. And for a luxury beauty product in China in less than 3 months sounds way too high considering it was not fully rolled out at the start.

Some things I have considered:
China is a very segmented country. There a big difference between what happens in Shanghai and what happens in Chongqing or Guangzhou.
1.3b in China, but how many can afford expensive beauty products.
It is a luxury item that is being sold.
New product.

There are about 770m workers in China. About 20% are "middle class" in China - that is an average annual salary of about $12k. You need to earn alot more than that to be able to afford Olay, etc, so lets just take the top 20% of those. Less than half are women, but lets say 50%. So 770m x 20% x 20% x 50% = 15.4m target market.

Or, another way to look at it, the top 1% in China earn about US$92k per year. According to the WSJ
1% of the population is about 13m. Lets assume half are women or have access to spending that average income, so about 6.5m target market. This is less than half of my other figure, so am happy to go with 15.4m to start.

Getting 1% of the target market to purchase within the first 3 months may be considered a good result. So, 154,000 is a rough number that I have come up with that I would still consider to be generous. Sure, you absolutely want more than that 1% to buy your product, but in the initial 3 months, it is just not going to happen.

Ok, another way to look at sales is to see what women also spend money on. Whitening cream is a vanity item that is not uncommon in China (and other Asian countries). This CBSNews article here suggests that it is a $2b/yr industry. There are numerous products on the market for this, from the very cheap to the very expensive. A portion, at least, of these would be part of the target market for the wand. So, if they sell 154,000 @ $70 = $10.8m. That would mean that in 3 months 0.5% of the whitening revenue has be achieved by the wand. But, I would consider Olay to be a luxury product, whereas whitening cream is very much available in all price ranges.

Of course Olay would have forecasts and targets based on their market research and historical data, after all, they would have had to produce all of this and get it into the (right) stores. I may be way off. It might have been only 50,000. Or maybe it was 500,000? I guess we will never know.

This is all my own opinion. You can stretch and skew the assumptions many different ways to come up with a final number.