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$1.15 volpara health technologies limited

Ann: Appendix 4C Q2FY22 Quarterly Cash Flow Report, page-21

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prosperity

9,207 Posts.

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28/12/21

09:17

Post #: 58533103
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Originally posted by jellyroll: ↑

Pacific, From my perspective I think you are overlooking a few things. Firstly you are only looking at operating cash flow and not investing cash flow, that will add @ 1 million per quarter to your burn numbers. Secondly, on the last investor call they have essentially told us they do not have enough cash based on current business forecasts to get to cash flow neutrality. Don't believe me, ask IR the question directly, they will not answer yes, just as Craig refused to on the last investor call. Finally and it depends on how much risk they are prepared to take the directors can not let the cash fall below a certain level, prudently, I would suggest that number should be enough to cover 12 months of cash flow.

So in the last 4C they forecast they had 8 quarters of available cash, we are now 1 quarter further along so that number is now 7 quarters and I reckon the board will not allow that number to fall below 4 quarters or you will set of a death spiral in the shareprice. So that tells me that they need to come to market by September 2022 at the latest. The final timing will come down to their assessment of the market and there in lies the risk, go early and take Say 90- 95 cents or hold on for 6 months and take the risk of anywhere between 50 cents and $1.2. Prudent directors live by the motto, raise when you can and not when you have to. So I think they will try to bump at the shareprice as best they can and then come to market at the end of January or early February. Final point, without a substantial acquisition they will soon lap their acquired revenue and will only be able to report organic growth, that is going to be a lot less than the numbers they have reported over the last 2 years and I think might (negatively) surprise some people.

Finally we can deduce from certain public social media interactions that Ralph has engaged with Bell Potter ECM and we all know what ECM teams do for a living !

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This is the best advice on this forum.
I'd suggest people read it closely.
It's pretty much on the money and management are afraid to tell you their shortcomings.

The fact is, ARPU growth has been dismal. The US$10 aspiration is not even 15% there. Hence, why we need capital so frequently and why positive cash flow never eventuates.

The FDA approval never occurred due to poor relations with government agencies. Look at PME and how they fast tracked their approvals. The sell off is highly warranted and I wouldn't be surprised if we go much lower.

VHT Price at posting: $1.02 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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