Not quite sure I understand your morbid fascination with CR's?...

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BlackPeter

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01/02/22

07:21

Post #: 59261137
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Originally posted by jellyroll: ↑

Ok. So here are my thoughts

1) They did not take my question about can you rule out a CR in the next 3 months, read in to that what you will.

2) Ralph said that FY23 and FY24 working towards cashflow breakeven are the priority. So we don't have the cash to get there on current forecasts.

3) When compared to Q1 and Q2, cash receipts fell in Q3. I am still trying to figure out why that might be.

4) They did not answer the question about continued year on year growth rates.

5) The 6 months cash runway has extreme sensitivity to what was spent in the last quarter. It is not a forecast by management, it is just box 8.1 (cash spend last quarter) divided by box 8.4 (cash and equivalents at quarter end). There was a big drop in IP spending in the quarter not clear to me if that was intentional to conserve cash or something that would have occurred in any event.

6) If they let cash fall below 4 months the board are irresponsible in my opinion and are gambling with the direction of the share price.

7) It was good to see Jill force her way in to the conversation and actually say something useful, I am not sure Ralph would have called on her if it had not happened.

8) We have no insight as to what the AP and AR situation so don't know what might be owed or payable with claims on some of the cash

Here is my prediction, we get a deeply discounted CR in the next 2 months, it will be an extension of the cash runway CR and not for an acquisition. On a 60:40 basis I also predict that Ralph and the Chairman are toast and will be gone by yearend, in the case of Ralph it will be a loss but I am now clearly of the opinion he is more suited to a CSO role and not a CEO roll. In my opinion Craig came across as by far the most competent and confident of the two and I think he will be the person to step up. I am confident that the tincup will be out in the next 2 months, and it will be at between 50c and 60c. Sell rips and don't buy dips until it is out of the way.

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Not quite sure I understand your morbid fascination with CR's? They don't need the money right now - and even if income and expenses only stay where they are, money is sufficient for 6 more quarters.

However - Income is rising (just watch the trend) ... and if analyst forecasts (check market screener) are right with next year only half of this years shortfall than they might reach breakeven without further cash rise.

If not ... than they have even with allowing for a 6 months safety cushion 12 to 18 months from now to pick a good time for rising more cash. Why would anybody think that they want to do that now?

VHT Price at posting: 93.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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