ACU 0.00% 6.4¢ acumentis group limited

Ann: Appendix 4C - Quarterly Activity Report, page-30

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    On trend basis revenues / day were climbing nicely out of the hole. Hoping this is updated in coming 4C. On simple trend, forecast basis looks like below - lets see

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3384/3384233-ef07d88ad75dec5f6d58bba33b7dd72d.jpg

    As JW pointed out above my Qtr numbers were overstated. This doesn't affect the valuation which works on EBITDA % of Rev (annual rev and assumed % EBITDA is what counts there). Here's the re-do using converted 4C data (GST backed out). Rather than showing conservative and upside, here's a mid case with potential (my guess only) for 4th Qtr. I'm not backing out covid support as nor am I backing out the drop in demand / fees due to covid.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3384/3384260-7f107ecd30db693e64c03106bd48287c.jpg

    Overall if this comes to pass it's a decent year but a poor year in EBITDA / Revenue % terms at 9% across the year versus the historic 13% average and 16% for Opteon. So far better can be achieved with the same rig.






 
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