I've been invested in this company for over a year, and I have...

I've been invested in this company for over a year, and I have an uwise lack of diversity in my considerable portfolio- this is my disclosure. I too soil my y-fronts when my expectations are not met, that's the truth of it. My expectations were that by the beginning of this year, I would have been significantly in the green and I'm not -- and that hurts.

Now... if you bought a car, and you noticed the oil consumption was above the stated expectation, wouldn't you go back to the dealership, bang on the counter and demand to know what's going on? The might even enlighten you with fact about how rings take some time to bed in (okay, that's just my mechanically uninformed analogy) and take 20000 Km before they're good. Perhaps a particular model has an issue, wouldn't you want to understand the problem and workout a solution.

I would, and I sought some answers from Alexium. This is what I was told;

There are 23 customer (of which there are many more in the pipeline) that made up the revenue guidance from the beginning of 2016. Every single one of them is in the implementation phase. A lot of factors during this period are out of Alexium's control.

They gave me a couple of specific examples. The European automotive customer had the flying crew arrive six weeks ago to help set up the final scale-up trials, only to find the equipment had broken down. This resulted in an additional 4 weeks delay. Alexium won the business in the end but of course the income from the trial is delayed as a result.

Similarly another customer in the plastics industry who was interested in the SYN-FILL product was due to have revenue receipted this quarter. Apparently the customer had anticipated working around some certification issue by classifying their product in a different way but in the end they had to go through with the full certification formality. Again the business is signed off and committed, but the revenue stream is delayed a couple of months beyond the original expectation.

They strongly asserted that those 23 customers will all be converted into revenue streams. They cant always perfectly predict when the revenue hits, but they do a reasonable job of it.

As for the guidance for cost-neutral and for the $18m by end of CY, I'm still waiting for an answer as to whether it's still firm.

Speed humps. Life is full of speed humps, that is for sure.

Now advocating for the devil, I doubt a company would ever tell their investors, jeez bloke, everything gone pear shaped in here, you'd better dump your shares and run with whatever you can salvage. This is the real world, and you have to take everything with a grain of salt and try and read between the lines.

I'm watching this closely, looking for subtle cues that tell me something that opposes what I'm hearing. I don't believe what I've been told is untrue. The only regret I have is getting in at the wrong time. Those who got in early 2014 are still green, those who got in mid 2015 are hurting if they are still in, those who will get in this coming week, if there is a blood bath like some are expecting, will be smiling ear-to-ear by end of the CY.

Hope this helps some of you,

good luck