Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly-AXP.AX, page-12

Thats 24% market share in the first year, an outstanding effort. Cannacord expect them to make US33.8m if they achieve 16% market share. I have assumed expenses will be US5m higher to be conservative, so that would equate to NPAT of US28m or AUD37m using a $0.75 exchange rate. When you consider that medical device companies trade on extremely high PE's as they are seen to be very defensive, we then get to appreciate the type of investment we have in AXP. COH trades on a PE multiple of 35 and SOM isn't very different. So lets assume a PE mulitple of 25 to be conservative again and we get a market cap of $925m. Currently the market cap is $230m so that would imply a share price of around $4. I don't want to use a PE of 35 but the share price would be much higher using that higher multiple. When taking into account how differentiated and superior the product is in comparison to alternatives available and the fact that it will be covered by medical insurance, so at no expense to the patient, I feel that they will achieve a very much higher market share than the conservative 16%. The risk is that if the FDA approval doesn't go through the SP will probably fall by 70%, but that is unlikely in my opinion, but still possible.