Ann: Appendix 4C Quarterly Cashflow and commentary, page-47

@Techmeister - thats true but that not how the professional investor assesess cashflow risk

the difference between the good pros and most retail investors is that they wont pay extra for 'hope'.

ie to them its either contractualised and certain income - or its not. possible doesnt mean certain.

thats why i said BUD was a great story but a goblin story atm ie it has a hole in the middle - its got fantastic cy18 earnings upside - but the minimum contract outcome is well priced in atm at 35x - and the money doesnt meaningully flow for another 6 months - which is a lifetime in the stock market - and before then ~440M shares hit the 'market'. pros wont generally take mgt at their word about what escrowed shares will or wont do - theyll try to buy some cheap shares at that time if they come available

BUD mgt could short circuit the 'goblin hole' if they decided to provide guidance to an above minimum - but i dont think they should or would.

guidance is a stupidity imo - it makes market less efficient and investors lazy. and its really only suited to large cashcow low growth companies with long data track records from which mgt can meaningfully and accurately extrapolate outcomes

but - lacking it - the pros will generally wait until something tells them the stock is 'cheap' - ie that earnings are higher than they already thought

or if there's a chance of a bidding war. ie whats happening in lithium right now. stocks arent being driven by cashflow projects - but by belief strategic car/battery makers etc will emerge to bid for stakes in high output lithium projects

or the mooted 'big deal' ofc - add another $10m minimum revenue - even if it were only occuring from mid 2018 - any of these 3 things would move the stock past the goblin hole

but lacking that im a bit dubious pros would push the stock much higher despite your views on the LoI being a reliable indicator that it will convert.

after all its $300m mkt cap on what is currently $2.5m annual income receipts @ ~$29m in assumed cash at bank. that pretty lofty to any fundamental investor