Ah thanks for the education
@Seb93!!!! Much appreciated!!! I really appreciate your time to explain the basics like a Hotcopper-virgin, like myself
So, just to recap:
- First it was 'Magic Sugar' formulated by a Noble prize candidate;
- then the 'magic stem cell supplements';
- then the 'magic collagen';
- then 'Magic Bread' by endorsed & sold by some Canadian celebrity;
- then 'Magic pasta' that they sold million off on amazon & China- where they were unable can't cope with the demand;
- then the 'magic bubble tea'
- And then after all of these 'magic' announcement moments since 2009, they have taken $15M of investors money, and still haven't had one profitable year;
- So 2020 arrive, they are out of money again, only $100K left of the $15M they have taken from those hard working investors. Well someone need to maintain their lifestyles, then tell everyone that they have signed a million $ sale deal selling 'magic sanitizer balm/sprays' that will kill Covid19 out of nowhere and announce a fundraise;
- Then they put a video out about all of this 'CoVid19 magic', then they retract it;
- Then they release UK test results- then they issue a 'clarification';
- Then they cashed some of those options they have handed to themselves for free- Pay day- $756K- thank you
Now you are telling me, that after all of the above, you are willing to value this company on future 'potential'.
So what is the cash profits that they are going to make on this amazing 'Magic Sanitizers balms' that they are going to sell - that 'The stock market is a forward valuating mechanism' you have educated me about?
Again, forgive my ignorance, but my back of the envelope calcs, based on the current valuation of $45M, and assuming a uneveraged WACC of say 8% (far to low due to inherent execution beta risk), my DCF calculates about $4M/annum cash profit f'cast requirement...so with all of your education, you could probably work out what revenue needs to be based on their current high salaries they are paying themselves with your hard earned money.
Once you have calculated that, you are probably going to also realise that they are going to need another $20M of working capital to make that valuation happen- or maybe you are going to come to the same conclusion:
that this company is not even worth its cash, because it is already earmark for maintaining their lifestyles like the last 11 years. Cal me a skeptic or maybe a realist, based on their business acumen & 11 years track record this share value is not more than 5 cents max at this stage- so, GOOD LUCK!
