Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly-NEU.AX, page-17

Hi OV, I agree that there must be a CR or a deal before the next trial results are due.

If it's a deal then I would guess it would include at least the funds to take Rett to completion, which would be at least ~100m for a Ph III trial. If they fund further FXS work- and it looks like it would folow the Rett trajectory but 18 months behind- then it's ~20m for a Ph II Paediatric trial followed by Ph III.

Those numbers are guesses, but based on recent R&D spending by the company not too far fetched.

Which begs the question: if they do a CR how much do they go for? The last CR was for $6.3m done at 9c, which looks like a good deal now. The CR in 2013 was for $21m and at 11.5c.

Since 2013 the company has had two positive Ph II results and the SP is in the toilet, which was not what my modelling back then suggested would happen. Sigh.

From a peak of around $200m, we're now floating at a market cap of $100m. So I can't see them raising $100m for a Ph III trial, can you? I can see them raising another $6m odd just for working capital and beetling along, maybe in October again.

Things we need to know:

-Ph II Rett trial results. (Q1 2017)
-Whether toxicity and manufacturing trials are complete and bring trof to FDA standards if Ph III comes off.
-Whether concussion/ TBI has any future or is dead in the water, particularly with regards to army funding.

Other thoughts welcome.
BTW 11 sites now recruiting