I had suggested in an email to another poster that a more balanced projection could be the use of the size of the order book....exactly the same as other engineering firms like mining services companies and building companies use....a growing order book is as important as growing revenues and may give better insight into the future. So they could list work outstanding as a single figure rather than listing specifics re contracts along with actual revenue in each Q report?
The detail in this report is exceptional and is the more important aspect. Slippage of revenue is very very different to revenue targets being missed because work never materialised. The work is here and is not being lost and more is being gained, so some Q reports will look far more spectacular than others.
Suggested growth is a min of 25% y on y for '18, based on suggested US$90m this yr which will slip because of the $14 re San Quentin but new contracts keep arriving so this may be a smaller miss than this? so rough projection for next yr is 90 + 25% (22.5) + 14 (San Quentin slippage) + 35 (African MOU and is not part of forward projections) = US$161.5 = A$215m approx. and this may well prove low towards the end of '18 depending on second and third contracts from China partners later in '18. First contracts for each of the China partners, then installation and confirmation that they are both cheaper to run and produce better quality water than anything else available will lead to bigger and more frequent orders later in '18. Getting these first orders up and running asap is crucial. An important point I was looking for was the confirmation that the China plant is producing in anticipation of orders re both MABR and CMABR, NOT waiting for orders then building. So, with stock available for immediate rollout then some of these early China orders could be up and running by Feb/Mar '18? with bigger orders to follow in Jun/Jul/Sep? after partners are happy with the performance of their first orders,
kind regards, SEAH.
FLC Price at posting:
64.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
