I think there has been a lot of unjustified fear mongering on the back of this quarterly which will cause a few poor souls to panic & sell on open this morning, only to see it strengthen & probably finish in the green today as the insto money mops it all up.
The growth (QoQ) revenue expectations from the big end of town were 30-50% QoQ. This was outlined in many roadshows that Dave went on & he even reiterated it to the pundits who met him for a beer on a Sydney rooftop in late May.
BUD delivered 51% QoQ revenue growth - exceeding expectations.
The next point of emphasis in the document needs to be in the deals he is alluding to in the 4C - IMO they are very close & should be powerful by way of materiality. The paragraph specifically says (emphasis added):
"In addition to these arrangements, there are many other agreements, arrangements or relationships the Company has entered into which management does not consider to be material (at this time). Such arrangements include, but are not limited to, non-disclosure agreements to discuss larger or broader relationships, trial arrangements, exploratory relationships, not-yet-awarded bids on large volume customer deployments and service agreements"
I interpret this as extremely positive given there are many plurals in this paragraph, the use of the word 'many' & the explicit listing of 4 different 'arrangements' which are 'included, but are not limited to'.
For the comment to also go on & say
they're not considered to be material at this time, suggests that they are going to
move in to a material state when they're executed and given the current forecast of $70m revenue within the next 2.5 years, one can only speculate as to what sort of figure the management team may conclude to be 'material' against that backdrop.
In conclusion, the 4C shows that the business is moving in the right direction with some learnings along the way. It is natural & somewhat refreshing for a MD to outline the bottlenecks, frustrations & learnings of a business that is looking to grow exponentially. This level of transparency can only be rewarded by the big end of town as it builds trust.
So, as i say from the outset, I feel the poor souls who let them go in a panic on open will soon regret that decision as they've been swayed by the negative comments on this forum or they simply had unrealistic expectations of the revenue growth trajectory. Remember, 30-50% QoQ is all that was committed to & at 51% it exceeded expectations... Growing 51% revenue QoQ leads to very large numbers, very quickly.
Finally, Dave has always struck me as a smart cookie who does his utmost to ensure there is 'colour' or 'commentary' in the marketplace. Look at the BLOG they run as a perfect example of this - there are regular articles about the progress the company is making, irrespective if they are 'material' enough for an ASX release.
To this point, I imagine that there will be an updated Investor Presentation & associated Webinar in the very near term to provide additional colour to this release.
I'm also keen to hear what
@notlistening14 has to say regarding the companies progress as his comments are always detailed and projections have been on the money.
