Overall not too far off my expectations given the volumes sold.A...

Overall not too far off my expectations given the volumes sold.

A few points to note : -

1) The momentum of China sales through their own stores is for me the best take away and are above my expectations....I think that this is going to be the main driver of profits for 2014.

2) The PowerEagle volume in March was roughly the same as Jan/Feb combined at 4,100 and about the same as monthly volumes of late 2013.

The anticipated PowerEagle volume has for 2014 has actually been reduced from 72,000 units to 64,800 units - see the original OEM release : -

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120703/pdf/4276brzw4skxrw.pdf

This puts a big question mark around the 2015 PowerEagle volumes of 150,000 being met.....probably more like 110,000 IMO...and even that may be a stretch.

Given 1) I'm not too concerned about 2) which is lower margin anyway.


3) Positive operating cashflow was achieved "earlier than previously anticipated" - well not really as a previous presentation mentioned that positive cashflows were expected in 2014 March qtr - see :-

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131022/pdf/42k62p36crxvr0.pdf

However the delay in the JV would have impacted the previous October expectation ..... so this a good result in the circumstances. I wasn't expecting this.

4) Based upon my modelling, I'm expecting above $800k profit for the June qtr and for the 2014 full year I can see close to $4m.

My assumptions include the PowerEagle OEM "new" targets are met, Etropolis sales of next to nothing, only 1 new China store opening per month for the rest of the year, no sales of the street cleaners, and the JV actually being up and running by 1 July. I still believe that gross margins are better than expected....but probably need the half year results to confirm my expectations. Anyway still plenty of upside given my assumptions.

A trading range around the current price is probably about right for me based upon what we know.

sents