Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-27

The recent 4c has shown that CardioCel sales have grown by approx (as the statement said "around") 193% from the previous half year to land at $1m for H1 15.
We now have three halves that show the following:
H1 14 $0.056m
H2 14 $0.341m
H1 15 $1.00m.

What is slightly concerning is the fact that the stalwart medical device business is limping along, even losing momentum this year. Without the benefit of the detailed half yearly, I estimate they have done $3.77m from this division.
The last 3 halves now read:
H1 14 $4.027m
H2 14 $3.475m
H1 15 $3.77m (est)
Not that this division is overly relevant in the long term value of Admedus - but it does provide much needed funding at this crucial early startup phase. One would hope that management is capable of growing CardioCel sales much more effectively than has been the case with medical equipment.

Whilst the number of centres using cardiocel continues to grow, estimating future revenue growth is still best done using the SWAG method (thanks craft), better known as the "silly wild ass guess". I had previously estimated that they could do $2.7m in cardiocel sales for FY15. Given $1m in the first half, and with some impressive growth rates....I still think this is possible.

As for the vaccine division, this is outside my scope and something that I do not really have much conviction in my ability to value. I have however attempted a weighted probability valuation and as such, do ascribe some value to it.

Due to my reservations on the many uncertainties that remain with this company, combined with my inability to effectively value the vaccine division - I have yet to repurchase any of the stock that I offloaded after making satisfactory gains by selling at what I thought was exorbitant prices in early 2014. I will however continue to monitor the company and am prepared to allocate more capital should I come to the conclusion that some of my worries have been allayed. That may result in some of the potential return evaporating, but that's just the price to pay for reducing the risk of loss of capital.