AJX 0.00% 1.0¢ alexium international group limited

Sorry I wrote that without actually reading the announcement....

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    Sorry I wrote that without actually reading the announcement.

    $325k in purchase orders. From my blog (not updated with recent upscales and POs), I see 3 contracts that began in Q2 and none in Q1. There's some residual amounts from previous contracts but I don't have time to dig up the old reports. Let's assume $200k came from those contracts in Q2. That means $200k in 1 quarter = $600k by end of year.

    Home furnishings and European transport are both scheduled for Q3 earliest. None of these revenues would be included in today's announcement. Believe there's been some new contracts as well but no time to dig up all the info.

    Copy paste from my blog with the dates:

    1. January: Recurring supply contract in the decorative fabric market for upholstered furniture.
      • Indicative annual revenue of US$1-1.5m.
      • Revenue to begin in Q1 but forecasting for Q2 (delayed).
    2. February: Recurring supply contract in the natural fibres market
      • “Relatively modest” initial revenues. Assuming zero in valuation; incorporating this contract into margin of safety.
      • Revenue to begin in Q2.
    3. March: Chemistry sale (of Alexiflam-SYN) plus royalties and co-branding to outdoor product manufacturing company.
      • Alexiflam treatment revenue target per linear yard is USD $1.00-$2.00. According to the Industrial Fabrics Association International (IFAI), the US End Product Manufacturer (EPM) market for tents and tent-related equipment was 22.3m square yards in 2014, and projected to be 23.4m square yards in 2015. Tents are split between 3 major fabric types, cotton (canvas), nylon, and polyester, with cotton being the higher quality choice. Assuming a conservative market split of 40/30/30 amongst fabric types (40% of fabric being cotton), we have 9.36m square yards of cotton that can be treated with Alexiflam. Assuming a standard fabric roll size, linear yardage is equivalent to square yardage (though a square yard is conceptually much more; this is again built into margin of safety), we have USD$9.36m-18.72 potential revenue. Taking a 2015 market share of 15%, we have a projected USD$1.404-2.808m.
      • Considering Alexiflam addresses a technological gap where there are no non-toxic, water repellent, flame retardant treatments available for cotton, we view this market share as conservative and will certainly increase over the long term.
      • Revenue to begin in Q2.
    4. May: Purchase order from customer in home furnishings market. This contract was upscaled, but I will use initial indicative revenue figures and incorporate the upscaling into the margin of safety.
      • Indicative annual revenue of $3m-10m (assumed to be USD, consistent with previous announcements).
      • Product rollout in less than 90 days (announced on 14/5/15), revenue to begin in Q3.
    5. May: Trial work with US Defense contractor for FR solutions on exotic materials.
      • Indicative annual revenue of USD$1m
      • Revenue assumed to begin Q1 2016 (error built into margin of safety)
    6. June: Purchase order from customer in European transportation for high quality textiles in luxury automotives.
      • Indicative annual revenue of $10-15m (assumed to be USD, consistent with previous announcements).
      • Revenue to being in Q4 (earliest Q3, built into margin of safety).
 
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