Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-33

(Please excuse the following insomnia induced ramble)

I think it is a pretty safe bet that anyone reading this thread supports renewable energy. That CWE has a noble vision is not really the issue here.

Likewise it's pretty clear that coal will continue to be the primary power source for Australia for at least the next decade. Coal is cheap and given export trends will continue to be cheap.

People have brought up solar... Personally I don't like PV solar. It is seen as the cheap and easy path to renewable energy but it cannot and, unless battery technology gets to fraction of the current cost, will not be able to supply baseload power because it is so time dependent. At peak time when people get home and start watching TV and cooking solar is useless without cross timezone transmission or storage.

One of the issues is that because of solar wholesale energy prices are really unstable at the moment, and have been for a while. There are times when the wholesale price actually goes negative because supply so far outstrips demand (remember that coal power plants cannot quickly or easily make large changes to their output).

Because energy prices are unstable investors are reluctant to build generation infrastructure -including wave. Likewise I would have to imagine that the government would be cautious of funding more generation and placing additional financial strain on the coal plants. There is a good reason CWE is looking offshore for customers.

Heat storage solar is a good compromise as it lets you store energy as molten salt and use it when it is needed, but it has its own issues.

Cheap and c lab battery storage is still the silver bullet but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Doubtless most people here would know about the Tesla Powerwall - $12000 for 7 kwh, and that is for batteries alone. Add say 2.5kw of panels and an inverter for about $5000 and depending on your usage you are looking at a pay off period of 15+ years. The Powerwall has a warranty of 10 years so if you have to replace it you might not be able to break even net alone make a return.
Then there is the environmental impact if mass lithium mining and refinement...

So we come back to our favorite golden child, wave energy. I still believe that long term, at this point in time, CWE is the leader. The technology is good and the leadership continues to excel in most aspects.

But, and it is a kardashian sized but, is CWE a good buy at the moment? Honestly, I don't know. I'm inclined to say no.

CWE is a nest egg that won't be making returns for a good while. I think in 5 years time it will be huge but that we won't see much change until at least Q4 this year. While it is low risk the market in the current climate seems to be intolerant of companies without a clear path to profit in the next quarter - just look at the SP of Tesla.

The fair share price of CWE seems to be particularly difficult to pin down and I wish I could say what it was. I personally feel it won't be dropping by much more so I'm going to wait it out.