Here's how I am reading this quarterly and accompanying commentary:
- Cash burn steady around $3.8mill per quarter.
- Will need to raise capital by the end of this coming quarter
- Independent advice on company structure could be excuse for SH to reduce duties/step aside.
- I was surprised by how few batteries they have been able to and can produce. 84 batteries for the last quarter is roughly only one per day...
- With 270 batteries a month in production for next quarter, and assuming costs remain steady around $4 million, that equals a cost of production of $14,814 per battery to Redflow. They will need to be producing and selling at three/four times this amount before RFX reaches breakeven. That's 810-1080 batteries a quarter that they need to be pushing through the installer network.
- With the next capital raising, the market cap will increase with the new shares offered. Current market cap is $85 million and the CR will probably push it above $100m again.
- For RFX to begin to be valued on its earnings, it needs to surpass its break even point and actually start generating some profits. This will require a ton of sales and distribution channels that are currently non existent. Going off my rough break-even numbers, Redflow needs to sell about 12 batteries a day to the installer network just to break even. It's a big ask to grab that much market share with a product that is more expensive than most rivals.
- Clearing up the warranty issue was a good move.
- Victron got certification to continue to sell inverters in Australia, which is a tick, but I think they still need to make more inverters compatible to reduce the install costs for current solar owners looking to upgrade.
All IMO, DYOR.
Still a sell for me, If I still had any shares I might hold onto a very small parcel just in case of a possible SPP to existing holders as I think any capital raised will be at a discount to the prevailing SP.
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