Further to that I would say that "earnings" is a bit of a loose term and provides lots of wriggle room.
I would consider earnings NPAT - Net Profit After Tax (the absolute bottom line), however, earnings could be EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortisation),
Or EBIT.
In reality, in the next 3 years we shouldn't pay too much interest (we're unlikely to have substantial debt), and we're unlikely to have major Capex, so depreciation of plant and equipment should me minimal. We also won't have a tax liability for a few years thanks to years of accrued losses, so the gap between EBITDA and NPAT shouldn't be all that big.
$20M in earnings by 2020 seems like a Big Hairy Audacious Goal, but not out of the realms of possibility.
Let's say the $20M is EBIT. We would need to achieve $24M revenue this year, and grow the top line at a 70% CAGR for the next 3 years to achieve circa $118M revenue, whilst managing costs to achieve a 19% EBIT margin.
St Jude, Medtronic, Resmed, Edwards etc all have EBIT margins of circa 15% - 25%.
I feel like a lot of things would have to go right to achieve this level of EBIT this quickly. I'd be quite stoked with $15M EBIT by 2020.
Assuming an undemanding EBIT multiple of 25, that's a Market cap of $375M, or 4.4 x our current valuation ($1.47 per share). Beyond this point I would expect sustainable double digit growth for many years.
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