Still not delivering on so many promises made in previous half yearly reports. No DOD contract or licenses. Cash dwindling. Gross margin negative and now promising 40% this year, how can anyone believe them? Cash flow issue which will continue to be a problem as they make more chemicals than they are paid for each quarter. Revenue growth slowing already.
I think a take over will be the only savior here as the share price dwindles but it may have a long way to fall from here first.
Think about when you first invested in this company and where you thought it would be by mid 2017. Start of 2015, it was the military contact and the scale-ability of the licensing model that got me interested. Neither of which have eventuated over 2 years on.
They always planned to have toll manufacturers around the world and they just make money from licensing out the tech and spend on further developing it but that is not the economic profile they have. Think of the risk you face if no more big contracts are signed or licensing agreements made. Maybe the big chemical companies would rather turn their backs on AJX and let it fail until they can buy the company and the tech for 30-40 mil after it has run out of cash and out of shareholder faith. Maybe they are negotiating licensing deals worth peanuts to AJX just to see how they can implement and sell the tech to get a feel whether it is worth purchasing the company but I can't imagine them paying the current market cap for it.
Glad I sold out when I did, I bought back in with 10% of my original holding size for a big discount because I wouldnt be able to forgive myself for giving up if they ended up posting massive gains after all the research I did and the high conviction I had but I think I am starting to regret that. Maybe they made the push to commercialization too early. Consumers don't care or even know about the chemicals in the products they buy, especially not carpet, upholstery, building materials, electronics, etc. they are not even the person making the purchase.. Sure A2 proteins in milk & baby formula (A2M), vegan, all natural, animal cruelty free etc. beauty products (Sukin), free from foods (FNP), but not non-toxic fire retardants unfortunately.
I think I will continue to hold out for licensing deals or take over or more big contracts. Sure the promise and potential is still there but management have just lost all trust making new promises every quarter without delivering on any of the previous ones. Has no body else noticed they always repackage the same excuse for why the contract/revenue/license has been delayed every time - we are negotiating a bigger deal than first planned. You'd think they'd have learned by now to be more conservative but they are still making fresh outlandish promises. I am just glad I massively decreased my exposure, I hope not too many of you long-termers have a silly amount tied up in this business like I used to have, you're kidding yourself if you think it is a 100% sure thing they will succeed.
I would just like to clarify my sentimant. I hold and rate it as a hold, just. But it is a hold with a very low weighting and high risk. If I had more than 5% weighting I would sell it down.
Harry
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