@binwood and
@Overboard888
Thanks for your replies/comments. Always good for me to take on feedback and additional food for thought.
I honestly have the capacity to know as much about the business as you do. Even though I have worked in the industry for many years, this provides limited insight and virtually zero advantage when it comes to the shareprice and IAM's growth rate.
As I mentioned, I don't have a strong view either way to know whether IAM are more or less likely to achieve their M4 target. The purposes of the post was to simply throw out numbers there for people to start thinking of one possible scenario (out of the infinite) in order for them to achieve cumulative NPAT of $40m.
No doubt it's EXTREMELY aggressive no matter how you slice and dice the numbers. I completely agree with everyone who has said that it seems unrealistic etc. I have invested as much as I'm willing to lose on this investment as part of my overall risk management, just I do with any other stock. To your point, yes, 85%, 110%, 200%, etc are all ridiculously high growth rates to sustain...but I wouldn't know this until I actually did the numbers on one possible scenario.
As for the projections, even slightly tweaking the numbers (e.g. growth rate, margin, cost per package etc), makes a huge difference to the outcome. But I'm happy to put my work out there for all the readers to critique and form their own view (there was never any intention to mislead or upramp/downramp). It's good because I've managed to read through some of the responses where people have provided alternative projections or built on some of the models (both upside and downside scenarios).
In fact, as someone suggested, I have several spreadsheets and scenarios for IAM which actually modify both the Growth Rate and the Margin each quarter to get a more realistic picture over the next 2 years (e.g. starting with 180% growth and little margin and sliding down to reasonable lower growth with a higher margin). I did this, so I had some education on whether I thought it was reasonable or possible for IAM to achieve this. Without this, I don't know how I would be making the decision to invest above knowing the management/industry etc.
Happy to answer any other questions/concerns people have.
Bodhi_Trader
