Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-115

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sholtz

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31/01/18

22:35

Post #: 30719446
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Originally posted by Dazaau ↑

I had a good look at some ADAPT numbers last night, but need to do some more on the overall picture.

The problem for me is still the lacklustre performance of ADAPT. ADAPT revenue grew by 12% in 2017 compared to 2016 (from $6.5 million to $7.3 million) . That's not bad for an established product but it's pretty poor for a new groundbreaking one. Unfortunately the March Quarterly is coming up and it doesn't have a good track record. Last March there was a 21% drop compared to the previous quarter in sales (because I believe seasonally it is a quiet quarter).

I find the commentary from the company to be very divorsed from the numbers with regard to ADAPT. They always seem larger than they are, the promise of even larger growth, but not much materialises. "Breakout growth" claim still gets me, and last quarter the growth was slow because of hurricanes,and this quarter there are new excuses. This also worries me a bit.

Meanwhile the growth in revenue is mostly coming from selling infusion pumps, which is not what most are here for I would think, but it's going very well!

I noticed the quarterly focused strongly on TAVR, up front and center.

So while the company has a few irons in the fire, ADAPT is still struggling, and if nothing new gets announced between now and the next 4c I imagine it will be quite a large negative cash flow as it appears to be the slow quarter for sales traditionally.

Seems the main reason to jump in at this point is TAVR potential or maybe a vax deal, although I really am not sure anyone wants to pay anything for that ATM.

Hopefully 3D makes a difference also, but so far the only people talking about 3D and ADAPT appears to be AHZ. If the product is so good I wonder why the takeup isn't faster, and why hasn't a huge company with existing market share bought AHZ out for the pennies it would currently take. I suspect $150-$200 million and it would be a done deal. Even less if they just wanted ADAPT.

TAVR is what WP seems to think will drive the next SP spike. It could be huge. Or it could not get an interested party. If I had some money to risk it could be worth a flutter but I am at the stage in life where I can't so I'm going to wait and see some more. I'll be sore if I there is a big TAVR announcement and I'm on the sidelines, but that's the way it is!

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I thought you were doing ok until your belief of a takeover at 58-68cents, or even less if they were only after Adapt. You clearly have a lot to learn if you believe that. But there are currently 19 others with not much clue either so at least you are not alone.

AHZ Price at posting: 25.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-115

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Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-115

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