Well the value of GSW per share is:
Net cash
+ EV of business
- contingent liabilities (class actions)
________________
divide by shares on issue plus in the money options
Net cash is claimed to be $96m as at Dec 31 (despite earning no interest)
contingent liabilites are going to be very large given the disclosure record
EV of the business is up for debate, but given cashflow from customers level and lack of growth, probably nothing
so you probably get +96m (assuming someone independently verifies the cash is there), less contingent liabilities divided by about 200m shares on issue.
So ballpark, valuation is 0-40c per share in my view. Given it can't trade below zero there's some option value there, but it's entirely rational that it'd trade sub 40c.
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- Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly
Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-315
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