Hi all,
Been watching these threads for a while. My 2 cents...
N.A was/is and remains the bedrock of my investment thesis. This contract seems to have been totally written off by the market given the current SP below cash backing. To write off this contract I feel is short sighted. If anyone thought there would be any kind of cash flows from this within 12months they clearly have no idea about the complexity of supply chains operated by the clients of NA (and I’d imagine consensus is that NA will be an intermediary between GSW and the national accounts they hold). It has been implied here that the deal isn't real/no evidence of these implementations taking place. I disagree, I have done research into all the national accounts held by NA. With, for example O’Rielley Auto Parts (current NASDAQ SP floating round the $220 mark, and a fortune company – Bane has repeatedly referred to dealing with fortune companies) there has most recently been the following commentary:
“
O’Reilly’s frequent store openings and expansion of distribution networks will enable the company to expand into new and contiguous markets. Further, in 2018, it plans to open 200 more outlets and invest in new technologies to develop in-store technology and logistic efficiencies of the distribution networks.” , (source:
https://registrarjournal.com/2018/0...vestment-analysts-recent-ratings-updates.html)
Which I’m sure you’d agree at the very least have a slight resemblance to GSW and their white label offering.
Additional to this. Staff costings going up Q on Q and advertising spending remaining low in the last 2 quarterlies. Both indicate to me heavy implementation focus of the company, after all, why reduce advertising spending if you’re struggling for clients. Especially with 100m in the bank, where GSW can buy their way out of implementation risks.
Not to mention Amazon (though too vague to warrant including in any valuation – is a wildcard), YUM and others, I think the current SP is too low and will be rising in the years to come. Please note, years. I will be re-evaluating my investment in 2019 as this is when I expect revenues to being to show.
Currently I am sitting on a paper loss, and feel for anyone who has sold their shares at a loss. This is a highly risky, speculative stock. But with this risk comes possible rewards, but there was always going to be wild up and downswings. Patience is needed here in abundance. However I believe in 5 years this will be one of the great Aussie tech stories, and the very same journalists who wrote about the recent troubles will be writing about the small Aussie tech battlers rising from the ashes. Only thing they love more than tearing down a tall poppy is seeing them get back up again. I expect soon the more clued in journalists will begin to catch onto this and whichever is the first to start the string of articles will be lauded as the genius who picked the diamond from the rough.
Please conduct your own research, this is all my opinion.
Interested in your thoughts. Best of luck!
Mary Jane.
