The tone of this is distinctly different. It appears a little more transparent and has the sense of input from someone who knows how to measure business performance other than by share price and who can distinguish inputs and outputs. It somehow feels to me like it is setting a baseline for us as well.
Caution exists in a few areas however. It is still hard to get a real handle on the sales pipeline and the likely progress of large scale projects. I think that may be because we have had so much "fluff" for so long with constant excuses and heightened expectations that they are somewhat trapped by having to manage that.
The inventory excuse was a few versions ago not the most recent explanation so it doesn't bother me. In fact I would rather prefer a supply chain management practice that was less reliant on substantial inventory as that is potentially dead money - especially if you can't manage and predict your sales pipeline.
Do I think that this shows a new hand at the helm? Yes decidedly so
Do I feel reasonably comfortable? Yes - given that they have to manage the damage of the past.
In saying that I think we are probably a little ahead of newly commercialised business but way behind where we thought we were. I'm also not sure the explanations around the three cornerstones are entirely satisfactory. On reading them closely I note the following
Btw are their variance increases or decreases correct?
- The military is still stuck in the sales/realisation phase even if it is progressing. They can't declare certainty though it would sure be interesting to know how they are forecasting likely success rate and dollars
- The mattress market may have stalled or encountered new barriers and it bothers me that is regarded as a cornerstone initiative
- The fire retardant market may or may not be smaller than we were originally told with fewer products. It seems we are far earlier in the commercialisation phase across a large product range than we were led to believe.
Parsifal
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