Its a weird feeling watching the Clinuvel share price fly having...

Its a weird feeling watching the Clinuvel share price fly having spent the last 10+ years believing that the company was massively undervalued. Its now a case of trying to justify the current valuation. The recent 4C and Half yearly were OK but far from spectacular. No further dividend.

The NICE decision is still unknown. FDA is progressing but still 4 months away and although priority review has been granted I think SPL had the same and was then asked for more data. Clinuvel’s data package is weak (not entirely their fault) but the FDA could easily use the lack of hard data to issue a CRL if that was their wish, just as UK and now Norway have done so with respect to reimbursement.

The pipeline may be promising but I don’t think we can really know if they will follow through with anything, maybe VP should be a goer. What happened to the OTC product to be released last year in Asia? What happened to Japan and TGA filing? The CUV9900 announcement last year was virtually unchanged from the 2010 CUV9900 announcement!

I am guessing that ASX200 speculation may be driving the price in a very tightly held register. I am not informed in these matters but would give Clinuvel about a 50% chance of ASX200 next month. Currently Clinuvel is third in place (based on market cap) of the ASX300 companies not included in the ASX200. Netwealth and Promedicus are the 2 companies ahead of Clinuvel for entry. Clinuvel has a market cap greater than about 35 ASX200 companies. Will the ASX add 3 new companies in what is a very stable index? Time will tell.

Watching daily increases of 5% with new all time highs on 200,000 turnover is much more interesting than days of no trades and a low share price so long may it continue whatever the reason may be.