Hi Psalty,
You are spot on. Management will definitely be very focused on these options.
Their primary goal is to get the SP comfortably above (say 6.5-7c+) between now and mid/late June....only 9 weeks away...so as to attract the exercise of the 107m 5c oppies. But there may be a struggle here given who are behind the options.
The main players are:
RM Capital (Guy le page and his clients) have 42m. They were part of the original float and scr*wed 3DP for these oppies. I suspect that very few of these holders have any intention of exercising and holding for anything more than a few minutes. They all tossed most of their initial shares at the start.
Ian Oslen has 30m so he's going to have to find $1.5m to help him exercise which is likely to be challenging to find a loan for this.
Graham Griffith's estate has 20m who are likely to want to exercise (and can afford to) but may not elect to continue to hold all.
Rob Newman has only 5m but he could exercise that with what he spills at breakfast.
So I think that without any interference, quite a lot of stock (60m+) would come back from the oppies quite quickly, unless....
Someone buys the 'loose' oppies now for say 0.5-1.0c and/or underwrites them.
Personally I think any one or a combination of Canary Capital/PrecisionHawk/NEA/Rob Newman/other would give them their corporate needs and after-market stability that they need.
But someone is going to have to deal with the people at RM Capital first if this is going to have any chance of settling materially above 5c anytime in the 3rd qtr.
It would be a waste to see a succession of great announcements...giving great SP momentum to only be smashed by short term, disinterested clients of RMC.
Cheers,
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