Hi TradeRR,
Thanks and good perspective on MC/Revenue multiple. Another perspective is MC/EBITDA
UWL ($161M/2M = 80x)
OTW ($250M/~16M = 16x) ... EBITDA can be better than $16M, maybe...
5GN ($60M/~1.5M = 40x) ... assumed an improved EBITDA in H2FY19 from H1 ~$700k
While 5GN is attractive in terms of MC/revenue, 5GN management would need to have more synergy savings to turnaround the profitability faster than competitors to gain operational leverage and efficiency.
Joe is quite conservative by announcing ~$55M revenue, as this is basically based on the annualised revenue from the acquisitions of Enspire, APTel, H&A, and MDC. With the FY20 target of $80M revenue with $10M EBITDA, hopefully Joe is able to turnaround 5GN net profit to positive and with newly signed customers and up/cross selling opportunities. A higher cash receipt in Q4($15.4M) would help to surpass or meet the market expectation, and hopefully the flat Q4 cash receipt is due to timing.
The YTD cash receipt is a good indicator of the FY19 revenue, that added up to $53.4M (15.4+15.4+14.2+8.4). Using H1 as a guide, H1 revenue recorded was $23.6M vs H1 cash receipt $22.6M, it indicates that FY19 revenue will be around $55.4M.
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