Last years Strachan report did not break down their estimated $A12M yearly revenue (once all initial 10 plants are running), they just mentioned it. So I did try to estimate Kalina's EBITDA while building the initial 10 plants.
I assumed that they are paid $A2.3M (per plant) development fee at the beginning of construction, $A0.3M per MW engineering fee and $A0.25M upfront royalty, once plant is commissioned. I ignored the project equity contribution as I believe it's not significant until many projects are running at the same time. My estimates are attached.
We can see that in 2022 we may end up with $A13.5 EBIDTA. The company can be valued at least 10X that as there should be no tax due to the large accumulated tax loses over the years. About A$140M MCap or 15c share price or thereabouts. This also assumes that they continue building plants past the initial 10 at the same speed. The upside is if they start construction of 5, 6 or more plants per year or if they sign plants in other markets (they talked about larger size plants in North America and some waste heat leads in Alberta). However, as the cash balance grows into year 4 and 5, they may start construction of some of the plants as the owners, in which case I believe the EBITDA calculations onwards can grow really really fast.
