Not much I can add @Warrigals, we have had a very poor investment outcome from KPT due to a combination of the inordinate delays around the wharf decision and then the fires completely reframing the investment case.
Our job as investors is to be forward looking when assessing value. KI has demonstrated over the past 15 or 20 years that it has the best growing conditions for trees in Australia. Unfortunately, it has also demonstrated a capacity for fire that could make the growing conditions moot.
Once a port decision is made, minds who understand timber better than I will doubtless review the performance of the forest prior to the fires and decide whether there is some way to replant in a way that mitigates the fire risk.
I should point out that in the event the wharf is approved, the type of long-term owner of such an asset are groups who will think about returns in multi-decade tranches. Even the best of us in the equity market rarely truly think more than 3-5 years out.
There is also the concurrent prospect of some, or all of the property being returned to some other use. An approved port would also enhance the land value for a number of alternatives to forestry.
For what its worth, I have modestly added KPT of late (so I will nominate "buy" for sentiment), but only because I suspect "tax-loss selling" has been a primary driver of the weak share price and that will likely stop as June 30th approaches and people will return to considering the value of the assets. The levels the CEO and board have agreed for the recently announced performance rights they would likely have put some thought into as regards achievability. I'm confident they feel there must be some pathway that sees the highest hurdle achieved, which would be a very good result from these prices, even if it has been a poor outcome for those who have supported the company in more recent capital raisings - Eternalgrowth
KPT Price at posting:
80.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
