AGH 2.70% 3.6¢ althea group holdings limited

You are making a lot of assumptions.Have you considered that...

  1. 1,235 Posts.
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    You are making a lot of assumptions.
    Have you considered that some households might be limiting expenses in the initial stages of covid, for completely obvious reasons?
    Waiting to see whether they can afford their cannabis medication? That would have an impact on revenue, independent of total patients.

    You seem very eager to ignore covid as a factor, whereas it is a blatant and glaring one.
    And please don't tell me it is no excuse because IHL. As previously discussed, generating 600% revenue growth is easier when your revenue is tiny to begin with. Yesterday I made 1 dollar, today I made 6: BOOM, 600% revenue growth.
    Once you've captured a much larger portion of the existing market like AGH has, it is much harder to post a massive revenue growth in the midst of a global recession with specific and unique disruptive factors.

    Existing patients which AGH has many of and IHL far fewer, are more likely to stretch out the medication they already have by taking less of it, to save money during the recession. NEW patients, who will make up a much greater percentage of IHL's patients compared to AGH simply because AGH has been around longer and has more established patients: new patients don't have a bottle to stretch! They will buy a full bottle, or fill the initial prescription, and THEN possibly stretch that if the downturn continues. This can explain much of the covid revenue drop for AGH, and how it doesn't affect a newcomer like IHL as much.

    Your 'dire implications' concerning the 5% revenue growth despite adding 593 patients, is absurd: you said yourself these are total patients, not active patients. So saying it is mathematically impossible is false in a way that leaves me scratching my head about you.

    Your arguments are irrationally negative. For instance you argue it would ring alarm bells if revenue growth is 5% but all 7000+ patients are buying medicine. In reality, and this is purely hypothetical and we of course suspect that many of the 7000 are not regularly purchasing medicine, especially a recession. BUT lowering the cost of medication to retain all you customers during emergency circumstances, would be a positive exercise in patient retention. I have NO idea what AGH is doing about customer retention, but in that vacuum of knowledge, I note that you choose only the negative. A typical stance once someone has chosen to divest.

    What I do know is Josh F has publicly stated they've learned some valuable lessons in focusing on customer retention in the past quarter.

    In any event, if you take the market as a whole, posting revenue growth of ANY KIND during the covid quarter cannot be qualified as 'rather inexcusable', the way you have. You are clearly not being objective.

    I'd say part of it is the desire to have been right to sell: sure, you're human.
    The other part may be that you've bought into the small cap hype of wanting to see meteoric growth all the time, regardless, otherwise, why are you even here? The get rich quick impulse in some people's approach to small caps can override their acceptance that there are stops and starts to every growth story, and cause people to sell without heeding the big picture. This may or may not be you, but something has to explain your biased interpretations and melodramatic statements of 'the writing being on the wall' for AGH.

    As always, good luck.


    Last edited by malkazoid: 17/07/20
 
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