Fundamentals do not remain strong anymore. I had a long...

Fundamentals do not remain strong anymore. I had a long discussion with a friend who work in a big pharma in Switzerland and here is the summary:

assumption: Zelira has multiple TGA approved products, unfortunately this is not true, Zelira’s approvals are for special access scheme only which means patients have to pay for the medicine in Aus, US, UK and Germany.

all what Zelira has is a branded product that can compete with the off market products like CBD oil. If you are a patient with insomnia, most likely you will get a prescription for a traditional medicine covered by insurance. If you believe in cannabis you have a wide selection of CBD oils or you can just smoke a joint, only a small minority will pay 300$ or above for Zelira’s products.

for Zelira to make decent sales they need to get the real TGA or FDA approvals not only for special access, there are two ways to get that

1- traditional path like GW, this costs millions and long time, only 6% of drugs manage to get FDA approval

2- gather real world data, millions of records, this is Zelira’s plans, if we are lucky this can take 2-4 years, the issue is how can you gather data if you have sold 10 packs in total, 3000/300= 10 packs unfortunately

summary, hold the stock of you are ready to hold for another 2-4 years

finally, there is something fishy with this stock, in the last 4 weeks it was clear that someone is holding the stock at 10 cents, it happened often in the past 2 years, the famous drop in the last hour of trading.