With these sorts of early-stage, somewhat opaque, quasi-conceptual business models with very limited operating and financial track record or undergoing seminal transformations, I have long ago learnt that one needs to set very strict and clear investment milestones.
And, most importantly, when those milestones are not met, to have a strong discipline that bypasses the human emotions and various biases, and compels one to sell out.
Otherwise, what one risks doing is one ends up waiting even longer for the elusive turnaround to materialise, with the result invariably being an impairment of the value of one's capital or, at best, incurring opportunity cost.
In this particular case, the update provided earlier in the month breached the expectations that I had in mind, both in terms of Revenue quantum, as well as in composition.
(Not to mention the subtle sleight of hand in the changed reporting metrics, which is always an alarm bell... If you are going to report your key operating performance metrics on a quarterly basis, then continue to do so; don't suddenly produce only 9-month-to-date figures when a particular quarter looks unflattering. If I owned a factory I'd expect my factory managers to inform me when the factory isn't performing well at any given point in time, instead of attempting to mask the under-performance. Because I'll find out at some stage.)
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KTD Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held