Not completelysurprised at the market reaction to today's Half Year presentation. We alreadyknew that the 28% sales growth was the slowest six monthly growth recorded forthe last few years despite:
- the sales force having reached a critical mass and level of experience to be kicking bags of 'sales' goals.
- theexpanding geographic areas adding to sales growth as they adopt the product.
- depreciationof the $A helping the half year comparisons.
Today'spresentation added to the disappointment because:
- realizationthat if the overall sales growth was not cannibalized by $2.1m MTX sales thenthis half should have been further boosted % wise by the first time inclusionof a completely new market. In other words without MTX sales the sales growth would have been more like 23%, not 28%.
- halfyear sales growth was matched by equivalent growth in employee expenses, sothat half year profit was broadly unchanged. The company is now of an age (7years in market) and size ($100m annual sales) where it should be starting toshow economies of scale so that sales growth translates into some noticeableprofit growth. At what point does the focus adjust to the ultimate goal(profit) because the current rate of sales and expense growth indicates itcould be a long and slow process?
- Nothing on the immediate horizon. Syntrel and Synpath are at least 12 months away, if at all. New markets like Japan could also be a while away. No hint of a significant BARDA order if successful. Nothingon the immediate horizon.
- Swamidoesn't come across as dynamic, instead he referred to proceeding 'slowly and carefully' morethan once during the presentation. He talks a lot about patient outcomes (whichis OK) but very little about financial outcomes.
As DW showed with his opening comments, he is well aware of what the market is saying. I suspect he will be pushing Swami a bit harder.
(20min delay)