IF/WHEN the Smart Bottle replaces the current package for the...

IF/WHEN the Smart Bottle replaces the current package for the SK-II Facial Essence, I wonder what the royalties will be per quarter based on the belowContaining 90% Pitera, the SK-II Facial Treatment Essence (approx. $189) forms the core essence of the brand. Its popularity is so great that it has seen more than 20 million bottles sold to date - a bottle is typically sold every 22 seconds.

if its one sale every 22 seconds, that's about 1.43mil per year.  How many bottles does the average user buy per year?  My estimate is something like 3 bottles/year.  So that gives 478,000 users of SK-II Facial Treatment Essence.  I expect the smart bottle cap will cost a fair amount more than the regular cap AND both will be available at the same time.  A user will buy a single smart bottle, then they will buy regular bottles thereafter and replace the dump caps with the smart cap*.  So how many customers will opt for the smart bottle at all?  I am going to say a very optimistic 70%. 

Therefore this gives an estimate of the total sales volume of the smart caps to be 335,000.  A safer range is probably 200 to 400 thousand.  

By the time they have sold one cap to all who are interested, SK-II will likely come out with the "Smart Bottle 2.0"  and then we can start all over again.

* Critical to this estimate is how long the battery lasts and if its replaceable.