From the camaccord report:
Projected NPAT 2015F: -6.3, 2016F: 19.6, 2017F 57.1 and 2018: 94.6
Current MC approx in roundish numbers = 720 mill
Bear in mind the Canaccord numbers aren't set in stone and will depend on things all going right including things beyond 1PG's control like the world economy. So how much risk is the market prepared to factor into this?? How forward looking will it be?? What is a fair PE for now??
I am happy to write off financial figures for this year as this is still the start up period so I fully agree that today's report is irrelevant......but......
Based on current MC and Canaccord's projected figures
2016 PE = 36.7, 2017 PE =12.6 and 2018 PE = 7.6
considering that Canaccord's estimate is just a best guess and not a foregone conclusion a current PE of 36.7 based on next year's theorized earning sseems excessive to me. If 1PG is a real going concern by 2018 and the Canaccord numbers are right then 1PG might double from current MC......but you will need to wait till 2018 for that to happen.
I guess it comes down to what punters believe is a fair thing. 36.7 for a PE that will happen next year maybe, perhaps, if the wind blows in the right direction seems too much for my liking.
An SP of around 2 bucks as I propose gives a MC of around 300 mill and a PE of 15.7 based on what is proposed by Canaccord for next year. That is not based on what they are earning now but rather what is proposed by Canaccord for next year.
If we get to next year and if the market is still in tact and if NPAT proves to be as Canaccord suggests then maybe a very forward looking 36.7 might not seem so much......but for now I think it is too much based on what we know. Still which ever way you look at this Joanna and the team have done a wonderful job. This is not about the viability of 1PG's future but rather this is about the SP getting too far ahead of itself in the short term.
I am open to look at other models that support the current SP.
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