ah, the PHICOR modelling. Yes, I know of this. I thought you...

ah, the PHICOR modelling. Yes, I know of this. I thought you were quoting timeline info put out by the actual govs or WHO health body etc.

PHICOR is a public health research group. It looks at the number of people who have been fully vaccinated and combines that with an estimate of the number of people who have been infected and have recovered to measure total immunity. Its models have a number of assumptions + caveats that from a 'research' point of view need to be noted

eg: The model assumes that immunity lasts indefinitely and that vaccination prevents infection rather than just reducing the severity of coronavirus symptoms.

eg: It does not account for the immunity that may be gained from only a single dose of vaccine.It is assumed that the vaccine prevents infection against current and future coronavirus variants in 90 percent of those who are fully vaccinated, and that 80 percent of the population is ultimately fully vaccinated.

Here is a recent NYTimes article which summarises the context of the PHICOR herd immunity modelling + many caveats that one needs to take into account. One can also play with the various modelling selections in this article..to get a sense of what you mean.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html

As the NYTimes comments, "In most scenarios, millions more people will become infected and tens or hundreds of thousands more will die before herd immunity is reached.".

In my view, govs of USA/UK/EU etc - after all the carnage already visited in their geos through multiple failures to date - aren't going to allow millions more infections and/or tens of thousands of deaths + a potential total collapse of the national health systems (considering all of these already have come close to collapse in last 6mths).

Testing is going ramp up majorly (on top of what it already has in this 1st world countries) to try preventing such infection trajectories whilst continuing vaccination drives (which also will take 2-4yrs to cover 90% of the globe)

in my view, one shouldn't use theoretical modelling that is done to help gov/health bodies/research orgs...as a solid basis for investment strategies. Its a data point to keep an eye on, sure and see what transpires over time.

I am not wishing to argue. You are perfectly entitled to your opinion here and welcome to put it forth.

I am just putting forth that herd immunity is not an established trajectory by any means yet...and getting there will require several years of vaccinations + infection control/lack of control events to come, in many countries with various mgmt styles.

Also, we do need to include China, Russia, India and other large Eastern EU/North Asia geos in the northern hemisphere mix - together with USA/UK/EU/ANZ, there is plenty of Covid19 testing market for next 2-4yrs at least for AT1 to try competing in (in my amateur estimate).

And if Covid19 becomes an endemic disease - as is already being suspected by many professional orgs - then Covid19 testing market could be there for next 10yrs+..this is unknown for now - we can only live through this period and see what happens with this theory also..